פנסילבניה, ויסקונסין, מישיגן, ואיך זה קשור לעמיר פרץ
ב-14.11.20 התראיינה ג׳יין או׳מאלי דילן, מנהלת קמפיין הבחירות של הנשיא הנבחר ביידן בפודקאסט של דיוויד פלאפ שבעצמו היה מנהל קמפיין הבחירות של נשיא נבחר (אובמה), וסיפרה על אסטרטגיית הקמפיין שעוד תילמד ותיסרק מכל הצדדים ע״י קמפיינרים ואסטרטגים פוליטיים בכל העולם.
או׳מאלי, האישה הראשונה שניהלה קמפיין בחירות לנשיאות בארה״ב ועוד נכנסה לתפקיד ביום הראשון לסגר בניו יורק ונהלה אותו תוך ריחוק חברתי לאורך כל הדרך, הסבירה את היעד ״להגיע ל270 אלקטורים״. מטרה שלא הורידה לרגע את העיניים ממנה.
א׳מאלי מספרת שהם לא הסתמכו על הסקרים שהתפרסמו בתקשורת. לדעתם הם היו אופטימיים ומרחיבים ומדי והלכו על סקרים פנימיים שלהם. הבסיס היה הדאטה. מספרים ונתונים. על זה בנו את הקמפיין. כדי להגיע ל270 אלקטורים הם היו צריכים להעביר כמה מדינות מאדום לכחול. הנתונים הצביעו על 3 עיקריות: פנסילבניה, ויסקונסין ומישיגן.
זוכרים איך בערב הבחירות טראמפ לקח את פנסילבניה בניצחון ברור וביידן אפילו לא מצמץ?
כי כאמור במטה ביידן לרגע לא הורידו את העיניים מהמטרה והתרכזו רק בה. השקיעו מאמץ גדול בפנסילבניה, וידעו שהתוצאות ברורות – המצביעים הדמוקרטים בהמוניהם הצביעו הצבעה מוקדמת בדואר (וזה לא נספר ביום הבחירות).
וככה מיום ליום וכל כמה שעות הגיעו תוצאות נוספות שלאט אבל בטוח הטו את הגה הספינה. מניצחון ברור של טראמפ, לניצחון של ביידן:
(ולהאזנה לפודקאנסט)
הגארדיין בכתבה ״איך ביידן ניצח במירוץ לנשיאות – מדריך ויזואלי״ מעלה גם הוא מפה (אינטראקטיבית) שמראה את כיוון הקולות בפנסילבניה:
ואיך כל זה קשור לעמיר פרץ?
טוב ששאלתם.
זוכרים איך פרץ, לאחר החיבור שלו עם אורלי לוי, הבטיח שביחד יקחו מהליכוד מנדטים בפריפרייה?
כי שניהם כידוע ילידי עיירות פיתוח פריפריליות (פרץ – שדרות, לוי – בית שאן) ושניהם יביאו את הבשורה, כלומר את המנדטים?
הצהרת פרץ הרימה אצלי יותר מגבה. כמי שהיא גרופי של נתונים, זכרתי שריכוזי האוכלוסיה הגדולים דווקא נמצאים בין חדרה לגדרה. לא בפריפרייה. שם האוכלוסיה דלילה (ולא סתם נתניהו לא משקיע בביקורים שם. לא ערב בחירות ולא בכלל).
כדי לנצח צריך להביא הרבה מצביעים כי אצלנו שיטת הבחירות היא יחסית ונשמענת על מספרים מוחלטים של מצביעים. ואם בפריפריה אין אוכלוסיה גדולה, מהפך בהצבעה בה לא יביא את הניצחון. אז הלכתי לנתונים כדי לבדוק:
אז אם 100% מהאזרחים היו הולכים להצביע בפריפריה – אפשר היה לקבל שם 5.9 מנדטים (שזה כמובן לא מספיק לפרץ כדי לנצח את נתניהו ולהקים ממשלה). ובכל מקרה כמה מנדטים היו לליכוד בפועל בפריפריה:
ניסיתי להפנות את תשומת לב מטה פרץ לנתונים המספריים. לעובדה שאין מנדטים בפריפרייה כדי לנצח. לא רק שלא הקשיבו אלא שהתווכחו איתי וניסו להרחיב את גבולות הפריפרייה גם לתוך ראשון לציון, חולון וכו (תחת הגדרת ״פריפרייה חברתית״)
את התוצאות כולנו זוכרים.
מילא שפוליטיקאים מחרטטים בפופוליזם מוחלט על מה שהם לא יודעים. אבל איך יתכן שהקמפיינרים של פרץ והאסטרטגים שלו, לא הסתמכו על נתוני האוכלוסיה ופילוח מדוייק שלה?
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